What Does Alberta Want? And How Soon Does The Province Want It?

“WHEN in the Course of human Events, it becomes necessary for one People to dissolve the Political Bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the Powers of the Earth, the separate and equal Station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent Respect to the Opinions of Mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the Separation.” U.S. Declaration of Independence

It’s becoming clear that large parts of the Laurentian Elite have suddenly become nervous about the implications of Alberta’s unrest. After decades of turning a deaf ear to low rumblings of discontent, from somewhere beyond the Lakehead, the Andrew Coyne Brigade is in full force waving their law books, warning about why Alberta independence is against the natural law, God’s plan and more. @acoyne Smith has no mandate to hold a referendum… Among many, many other objections.

It shouldn’t have taken this long. Premier Danielle Smith made her position clear in a town hall in Fort McMurray.. “Alberta, year after year, has $20 to $25 billion that is siphoned out of our system to go to Ottawa so that it can be spent mostly in Quebec, but also in other places that vote Liberal.” Over the last 40 or 50 years, Alberta has had $600 billion taken out of the province. (Albertans voted in a referendum to remove equalization from the Constitution in 2021, but that Ottawa ignored the province.) There’s more on the reform list of requests. Lots more.

“The response from the Globe&Mail? “Danielle Smith’s grievance tour finds a predictable scapegoat: equalization”.

But just in case, concerned federalists have got some scary polls primed. Angus Reid: “The number cruncher finds two-thirds of Albertans would vote against Alberta independence. Of those two-thirds, the vast majority say they would leave Alberta if it became independent. That’s 2.5 million people hitting the road”.

Calmer heads point out that 29 percent of citizens telling pollsters they’d favour separation. is exactly the same amount as a poll earlier this month found for separation in Quebec). Tellingly, young people aged 18 to 34, are significantly more likely to say that they favour Alberta’s independence. They’re not willing to find out what happens in ten years.

To Ontario premier Doug Ford’s credit, he doesn’t say the Alberta government trips to the U.S. are treason. But he does characterize them as going behind Canada’s back. He says they are unacceptable. He says they are unethical. He is disappointed." Ontarians think this is supporting Alberta.

BC premier David Eby paused from awarding his province to the indigenous tribes to suggest the movement to re-examine Alberta’s future is “treason”. Strongly worded memo to follow. 

Here’s failed Liberal leader Stephan Dion with “choice words for Alberta separatists and Danielle Smith”. ”I have no patience for separatist blackmail," Dion said in an interview on Rosemary Barton Live airing Sunday morning. “Is she indifferent about the fact that Alberta is in Canada or not? Does she care? And if she cares, then she should say so.” 

(Which brought a satirical response online. @AndrewJWHaynes "Feb 9 I would like to invite Stephane Dion to do a speaking tour of Alberta in favour of Canada. I will pay. No one could do more to help the cause of Alberta Secession more than Mr Dion. He is Gold.”)

Refining Alberta’s role in Canada is not a popular sentiment for the NDP faction within the province. A separate petition, called the “Forever Canadian” petition, spearheaded last year by former Alberta Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, calling for Alberta to remain part of Canada, collected over 400,000 signatures. Meanwhile, the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation claims a separation referendum is illegal, because it fails to recognize the constitutionally protected rights of First Nations.

For the record Premier Danielle Smith favours a sovereign Alberta within a reimagined Canada. But she has said if the legal mechanism for a referendum— the one vexing the Toronto Star — is tripped then she will allow it to go to voters. Polling from one firm claims that jittery federalists are blaming MAGA for the hubbub. Not so says Stay Free Alberta official Mitch Sylvestre.“It’s very simple… We don’t want to become a 51st state. And that’s basically all there is to it.”

So how did we (finally) get here, that a referendum on Alberta’s place in/ outside Canada is likely to garner the requisite 177,000 votes? There is the long story (equalization payments). Then the middling story (under-representation in Ottawa). Then the story of the past decade of Alberta being used as a cash cow/ whipping post by the climate fanatics in Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government who wanted to keep Canadian oil in the ground while buying foreign oil from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. . 

The story of the past year is the 2025 federal election in which the anticipated large Conservative majority was foiled by Donald Trump’s musings about Canada’s sovereignty— and the panicked federal NDP running into the arms of Mark Carney’s Elbows Up stunt. It turned the certain CPC rout into as near-majority for Carney.

Where Alberta leavers had anticipated a sympathetic federal government they now were instead faced with a revived Liberal party extending its malign policies into the foreseeable future. Having seen the Liberals the past decade and doubting Carney’s honeyed promises to work with Alberta on energy projects, they’ve taken to the courts and American opinion. 

One thing is certain. They’re not taking advice from CBC’s At Issue. Lectures from Jean Chretien, the father of the Sponsorship Scandal, aren’t helpful either. Separation or a 51st state or remaining will be decided inside Alberta by Albertans.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster, his 2025 book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His new poetry collection In Other Words is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca and on Kindle books at https://www.amazon.ca/dp/1069802700