Carney's Housing Meltdown: Building A Mystery

Imagine there’s a motorist going 110 K on a dark highway. The posted signs say Slow. Then Construction. Then Road Closed. But the driver keeps his pedal to the metal. “Those rules are for other people, not us.” The car goes off the road like Thelma and Louise.

This metaphor sums up the Liberal government since Mark Carney took over. There are warning signs all over. But he and the Justin Trudeau cabinet he inherited say the rules aren’t for us— even as their wheels leave the ground. They’re too busy announcing expensive housing plans and construction projects that won’t be built for four years, if at all. 

What are the road signs? On the macro level, the government is printing money furiously to buy off the inevitable collapse even as it begs the central bank to lower interest rates. On the micro, a Toronto man who purchased a condo at the peak of the Toronto market for $880 K in 2022 has had to walk away from the five-year mortgage because the debt is worth more than the property. Which sells in a bankruptcy auction for $550 K. 

In 2027, all such mortgages from that year will be coming due. What do you think will happen? This doesn’t include people who walk away before occupying. In Toronto, there is now roughly a 30 percent failure rate for condo closings, meaning many buyers are simply walking away from their pre-construction deposits. Even as tens of thousands of units are brought on stream.

The city of Toronto has $458 M in unpaid taxes on its books from 2024. (How will they paint rainbow crosswalks if this continues?) This shortfall is being experienced across the country. St. Catharines, Ont, had a 34 percent shortfall of taxed paid. Brampton has $150 M of unpaid taxes on its 2024 books. Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton face similar shortfalls. Meanwhile unemployment in these areas is reaching the 10 percent mark.

But the public seems unconcerned. They continue to elect radical city councils that address the shortfalls by jacking up their taxes even more—  while services are cut back or non-existent. In 2024 municipalities from Ontario to British Columbia announced proposed property tax increases of between 2 and 15 percent.

These economic road signs emerge from a Liberal party that used low interest rates to create Trudeau’s faux real estate boom economy in urban zones. In 2021 it deceived the purchased medias with a $71 B “boldest housing plan ever”. The housing market collapsed immediately after this stunt. No wonder Donald Trump snorts at Canada as a viable entity.

This week’s detour from reality is a $13 B plan for new modular housing (@$3.25 M per shack). To season the Real Estate Turkey the government imported 3.4 million people in four years to clog the market for homes. Asked about the failure of their venture into real estate (at the expense of Canada’s traditional products like energy, canola and soft goods) the government points to the booming TSX stock market as approval for their plans.

The polls seem to indicate that the Elbows Up crowd, who don’t recognize the water lapping at their front door, are still enthusiastic for Carney’s ongoing feud with Trump, Canada’s largest trading partner. Their media sources, protected by government grants that censor contrary news, instead distract them with tales of far-right vigilantes, wine boycotts and climate catastrophe.

The revolution in communications that has emerged in the U.S. has so far not drifted north of the border. In the U.S. old-line broadcasters are still giving out Emmys to now-cancelled Steven Colbert, who has lost much of his audience, millions in advertising and the patience of ownership. They staged an awards ceremony that frequently mentioned Hamas and Palestine but not a word about a major media presence, Charlie Kirk,  being murdered before live cameras.

No wonder they’re so shocked about the FCC cancelling Jimmy Kimmel for refusing to apologize for saying MAGA was behind the Kirk murder. The emergence of new outlets that reflect the complete spectrum has put the U.S. Media Party into fight-or-flight. For instance, startups like TBPN, a bare-bones daily talk show that riffs on Silicon Valley, has become a huge off-the-grid star outlet. It now commands appearances from Mark Zuckerberg. While the mainstream defends Kimmel.

The power of this emerging social media was shown in the pushback from the Kirk murder in which the unhinged comments of the trans and far-left communities were quickly exposed, with many in the teaching, public service and government professions (much to their surprise) summarily fired for their callous rants. Their shock reflects a portion of society that thought itself protected in their Bluesky bubble of affirmation.

In Canada the Kirk vitriol was no less nasty from outlets that see themselves as protected. @Cultmtl “Charlie Kirk died as he lived: propagating hateful myths about marginalized groups in our society. He was a profiteer and architect of America’s increasingly violent culture war. You reap what you sow.” (This from an outlet funded by the Canadian government.) CultMtl had lots of company in the self-protection circle.

“Discord, the communications platform now under scrutiny as U.S. investigators examine chat room messages involving the alleged assassin of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, is also being used by left-wing Antifa-aligned networks in Canada to organize and share dossiers on political targets”, Toronto independent journalist Caryma Sa’d.

So it was mostly American social media that outed odious Canadian comments online, forcing employers to take action against loons they’ve harboured up till now. The reaction to this culling was predictable in the mainstream media. “TorontoStar After Charlie Kirk’s death, workers learn the limits of free speech in and out of their jobs”  https://trib.al/h1wAmek The hysteria over Kimmel dwarfed even that.

But at least only half of America is in the BlueSky bubble where liberal Jew Hannah Einbinder mocked Israel which saves her tribe from extinction. Canada’s bubble is almost total, thanks to federal communications policies that smother free expression in the public sphere. So far it has resisted criticism by blunt-force object. Its aged loquitors speak with authority while ignoring the under 50s hate them for what they’re doing to the dream of home ownership.

Whether through fear or negligence, Canada’s Liberals are determined to shape their housing message for the bubble, distract from reality and pray they make it to the next election. Before the car goes over the cliff marked Do Not Enter.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.